2024-25 World Agricultural Outlook

WHEAT: The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks but unchanged exports. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 120 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Domestic use is raised, all on food use, based mainly on the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024-25 ending stocks are increased 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.60 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

The global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is for larger supplies and consumption, reduced trade, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 0.7 million tons to 1,061.0 million as higher production for Kazakhstan more than offsets reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and the EU. Kazakhstan's production is raised 2.0 million tons to 18.0 million on harvest results. This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan.

Global consumption is increased 0.9 million tons to 803.4 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Kazakhstan with its larger production. World trade is 1.2 million tons lower at 214.7 million on reduced exports for Turkey and Kazakhstan. Projected 2024-25 global ending stocks are lowered 0.1 million tons to 257.6 million as decreases for Argentina, China, and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey.

COARSE GRAINS: This month's 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2024-25 is forecast fractionally lower at 1.500 billion tons. This month's 2024-25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya, and Cameroon are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Turkey, and the EU. Mexico production is lowered reflecting lower winter corn area expectations. Foreign barley production is cut, mostly reflecting a reduction for Russia that is partly offset by an increase for Kazakhstan.

Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for Brazil and South Africa with increases for Burma and Uganda. Corn imports are reduced for China and Malawi but raised for Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, and Peru. Barley exports are reduced for Russia. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases WASDE-654-2 for Mexico, Uganda, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 304.1 million tons, are down 2.4 million.

RICE: The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports of long-grain rice are reduced 2.0 million cwt to 74.0 million, on weaker-than-expected shipments and sales to markets in Latin America. Medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 26.0 million, however, on larger sales to East Asia and the Middle East. Combined, all rice exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 100.0 million. All rice ending stocks are increased 1.0 million cwt to 46.7 million, up 19 percent from last year. Season-average farm prices for all classes of rice in 2024-25 are unchanged this month.

World rice supplies are raised 2.8 million tons to 713.1 million, mostly on higher production for India. India's production is forecast 3.0 million tons higher to 145.0 million, almost 7.2 million tons above the previous record set a year earlier. Above-average monsoon rainfall and high relative support prices led to record planted area for the Kharif season crop as reported in the first advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer's Welfare.

Global 2024-25 domestic and residual use is increased 2.4 million tons to 530.5 million, primarily on gains for India, Guinea, and China. World trade is projected at 56.9 million tons, up 0.5 million mostly on higher exports by India that are only partly offset by lower exports for China. Projected 2024-25 world ending stocks are 182.7 million tons, up 0.5 million, mostly on an increase for India.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024-25 include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and sales to date. Crush is lowered 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $320 per short ton. The soybean oil price is increased 1 cent to 43 cents per pound.

The global 2024-25 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower production, higher exports, lower crush, and lower ending stocks. Global 2024-25 soybean production is lowered 3.5 million tons to 425.4 million, mainly on lower production for the United States and India. Production for India is lowered 0.2 million tons to 12.6 million on information from the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) of India. Global soybean exports are raised on higher shipments for Brazil, Canada, and Benin largely offset by lower U.S. shipments. Imports are raised for Pakistan. Higher crush for Pakistan is more than offset by lower crush for the United States. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 2.9 million tons to 131.7 million mainly on lower stocks for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month with higher beef, broiler, and turkey production forecasts, partially offset by lower pork production. Beef production is raised, as higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter in the fourth quarter and slightly lighter dressed weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised based on production data reported through the third quarter. Egg production is lowered due to reductions of the laying flock because of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling through early November.

For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised due to heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher-than-previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024. The pork production forecast is lowered due to reduced first-quarter slaughter and lower dressed weights.

Broiler production is raised based on recent hatchery data that suggests higher production during the first quarter of 2025. Turkey production is unchanged from last month. Egg production is reduced for the first half of the year as the laying flock continues to recover from October 2024 laying flock losses.

The beef import forecast for 2024 is raised on recent trade data and stronger than expected imports from Oceania and South America during the fourth quarter. For 2025, beef imports are raised based on continued strong demand for processing beef. The beef export forecast for 2024 is raised based on reported data through September.

For 2025, the forecast is raised based on relatively higher expected global demand. The pork export forecast for 2024 is raised slightly based on reported data through September. For 2025, the forecast is lowered based on pork production forecast reductions and relatively weaker expected demand in several key markets during the first half of the year. The broiler export forecast for 2024 is lowered, as higher reported exports for the third quarter are more than offset by lower expected exports for the fourth quarter. The lower fourth quarter outlook is based on expected price competition from global exporters, particularly Brazil.

The 2025 export broiler forecast is also reduced. Turkey exports in 2024 are reduced slightly based on reported data through the third quarter. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is unchanged.

The cattle price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is raised based on recent prices and the continued strength in beef demand. The increase is carried into 2025.

The 2024 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices and strong pork demand. The 2025 forecast is also raised based on tighter pork supplies supporting prices in the first half of 2025.

The 2024 broiler price forecast is raised, based on recent prices. Higher prices are expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025, supported by higher cattle and hog prices. The turkey price forecast for 2024 is raised on recent prices, with the increases carried into the first and second quarter of 2025. Egg prices for 2024 are raised based on recent prices and tight supplies. For 2025, egg price forecasts are raised in the first and second quarter as supplies recover.

The milk production forecast for 2024 is raised from the previous month. Based on the most recent Milk Production report, lower reported milk cow numbers for the third quarter of 2024 were more than offset by higher output per cow. The milk forecast for 2025 is unchanged.

The import forecasts for 2024 are unchanged, both on a fat basis and a skim-solids basis. The export forecast for 2024 is unchanged on a fat basis. On a skim-solids basis, the export forecast is raised on higher expected shipments of lactose.

For 2025, imports are unchanged on a skim-solids basis but raised on a fat basis due to higher expected shipments of butter and cheese. The forecast for exports on a fat basis is raised due to higher cheese and butterfat-containing products. Skim-solids exports are also raised on higher whey-containing products and dry skim milk products.

The butter price forecast is reduced for 2024, as prices have continued to fall from the relatively high levels, they maintained for much of the year through late-September. The cheese price forecast for 2024 is unchanged. Both nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts are raised due to strong demand for both sets of products.

For 2025, butter price forecasts are lowered due to relatively higher inventories heading into the 2024 holiday season. The cheese price forecast is raised, based on higher prices and tight inventories in late 2024. Whey and NDM price forecasts for 2025 are both raised based on stronger domestic and international demand. The Class III price forecast is unchanged for 2024. The Class IV price forecast is lowered, with lower butter prices more than offsetting higher NDM.

The all-milk price for 2024 is lowered to $22.75 per cwt. For 2025, the Class III price is raised on higher cheese and whey price outlooks. The Class IV price is lowered due to lower butter prices offsetting higher NDM. The all-milk price forecast for 2025 is raised to $22.85 per cwt.

COTTON: The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024-25 shows marginally lower production,

lower exports, and higher ending stocks. NASS revised its estimate for U.S. all-cotton

production downward by 10,000 bales to just below 14.2 million in its November Crop

Production report.

The Georgia crop is raised about 200,000 bales offset by a similar reduction in the Texas crop with assorted small changes elsewhere. The national all-cotton yield estimate is unchanged from last month at 789 pounds per harvested acre. With global consumption and imports reduced, U.S. exports are reduced 200,000 bales to 11.3 million.

Ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 4.3 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of about 33 percent. The 2024-25 season average upland farm price is unchanged at 66 cents per pound. There are no revisions to the 2023-24 U.S. cotton balance sheet.

World production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and trade are all reduced in the 2024-25 global balance sheet. Production is lowered by 460,000 bales with the largest reductions for Pakistan and Turkmenistan. Consumption is reduced by 515,000 bales, primarily due to decreases for Turkey and Pakistan.

Ending stocks are lowered by 574,000 bales with large reductions for India, Turkmenistan, and Pakistan more than offsetting increases for the United States and Uzbekistan. Reduced imports by Turkey, offset to a degree by higher imports by Uzbekistan and Egypt, lead to a 295,000-bale reduction in world trade.